Brent Crude Settles Below $100/bbl On Higher Dollar, Weak Demand Outlook

Global benchmark Brent crude tumbled $7 on Tuesday to settle below $100 a barrel for the first time in three months on a strengthening dollar, COVID-19 curbs in top crude importer China, and rising fears of a global economic slowdown.  

The sharp drop followed a month of volatile trading in which investors have sold oil positions on worries that aggressive interest rate hikes to stem inflation will spur an economic downturn that will hit oil demand.  

Brent crude futures settled $7.61, or 7.1% lower, at $99.49 a barrel, its lowest since April 11. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $8.25, or 7.9%, at $95.84, also the lowest in three month.

Since their peak this year in March, Brent has declined 29%, while WTI has fallen 27%.

Oil prices are facing extreme pressure "as a defensive posture continues with consumer sentiment still in a depressed mode along with a COVID re-surface in China," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial.  

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six counterparts, also climbed earlier in the day to 108.56, its highest level since October 2002.

Oil is generally priced in U.S. dollars, so a stronger greenback makes the commodity more expensive to holders of other currencies. Investors also tend to view the dollar as a safe haven during market volatility.

Recession fears have also forced investors to dump petroleum-related derivatives at one of the fastest rates of the pandemic era. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 110 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the week to July 5.

Open interest in New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures fell on July 7 to its lowest since October 2015.

Close-to-close volatility on Brent and WTI is at its highest level since early April. Lower liquidity typically results in a more volatile market.

Renewed COVID-19 travel curbs in China weighed on oil prices too, with multiple Chinese cities adopting fresh restrictions, from business shutdowns to broader lockdowns, in an effort to rein in new infections from a highly infectious subvariant of the virus.

U.S. President Joe Biden will make the case for higher oil production from OPEC when he meets Gulf leaders in Saudi Arabia this week, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday.

However, industry insiders, sources and experts have questioned whether, with current output of at least 10.5 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia really has another 1.5 million bpd up its sleeve that can be brought online quickly and sustained.

Spare capacity within Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been running low, with most producers pumping at maximum capacity. OPEC on Tuesday also forecast that world oil demand will rise by 2.7 million bpd in 2023, slightly slower than in 2022.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast a rise in U.S. crude production and petroleum demand in 2022 as the economy grows.

Crude stocks rose by about 4.8 million barrels for the week ended July 8, market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures said. Gasoline inventories also rose by 3 million barrels, according to the sources. Inventory data from the EIA is expected on Wednesday.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Asia to discuss ways to strengthen sanctions against Russia, including a price cap on Russian oil to limit the country's profits and help lower energy prices.

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said that any price caps on Russian oil should include refined products.